Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions).

Overview

Test an idea against rate-decision history.

This public script marks U.S. policy-rate decisions, including increases, decreases, and pauses, on a price chart. Its historical decision dates were entered manually using Federal Reserve records. You can test chart rules tied to those decisions and compare plotted trade outcomes with a hold result.

It is a research and backtesting tool, not a forecast of the Federal Reserve or a recommendation to trade an announcement. Its plotted entries and exits do not place broker orders.

Dates and data

Decision date and rate series are different things.

The decision-date list is maintained in the script. The rate series can use USINTR or FEDFUNDS. The publication notes that FEDFUNDS values may update on dates different from the policy meeting itself. Treat the manually entered event date and the plotted interest-rate series as separate inputs.

For recent or upcoming decisions, confirm dates and outcomes with current Federal Reserve records before relying on the chart. Tentative future dates are not confirmed decisions.

Rule choices

Select the event and exit you want to examine.

Entry and exit criteria can respond to a single increase or decrease, consecutive decisions, aggressive changes, pauses, combinations of events, or rate thresholds. You can set separate long and short conditions, a minimum pause duration, automatic entry for the first valid period, a maximum time in a trade, and whether more than one trade may be active.

Reading results

Compare like with like.

The chart can highlight economic periods, show rate movements and trade status, and display trade and hold results. Tables summarize selected criteria and historical wins, losses, and draw percentages. These results depend heavily on the symbol, chart interval, period, event rules, and trade handling selected.

A historical fit does not establish future performance. Check how overlapping trades, incomplete bars, transaction costs, and event-date maintenance affect any conclusion.